A Parable: March Madness Bracketology

The Parable of the March Madness Bracket

I did it. I filled out my bracket to pick winners in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

For those who are interested in this kind of thing…or just are effected by family or friends who get involved in this…I find there is a similarity in some ways to religion and the NCAA tournament. (Bear with me on this…)

There are some different approaches people take to picking the “right” teams, ones they not only think should win, but will root and scream and argue to support why they think they are right about which team is better. Some people are just so sure they are right…until the scores are final and it can be proven and why.

But here are different approaches in my home:

1. Some people don’t worry about it much. My wife picks mostly on the seed or rank the team is given in the tournament and goes with the lower seeds that mean the “experts” give those teams the greatest chance to win. My wife doesn’t spend time studying or watching basketball, so she pretty much defers to others who know more than her about it. She trusts that, but ultimately doesn’t really spend much effort on it. She doesn’t see a need to.

2. My daughter really wants to beat her friends (especially the boys who think they know so much), and she likes to pick the names she knows (like teams from Utah) or teams that have a cool mascot. She is VERY biased, and sticks with what she knows or likes. She’s not too interested in gleaning from others what they know…she’s made up her mind and she’s ready to fight for it. She really isn’t too sure she knows who is best, but she’s competitive and totally gonna argue with others her picks are totally legit.

3. My son is pretty young and inexperienced…but he likes to be controversial. He picks 15 and 16 seeds to win games, even though that practically never happens in tournaments. His reason: “Its gotta happen one day! And when it does, I’ll be the one that picked it!” He usually has so many upsets, that by the second week, he loses interest in the tournament, since he doesn’t have a shot at sustaining his picks. He seeks the Shock factor…and is always disappointed.

4. I tend to over-analyze. I watch games, read blogs, look at the team records, the strength of schedule, rank conferences, and look at the RPI index which is supposed to gauge a “Power” ranking to compare teams. I agonize over the 8 or 9 seed…who is gonna win? I set my criteria based on what gives me the greatest hopes based on tertiary factors…what experience do the teams have in past years of the tournament? How good is their coach? How good are their guards vs forwards? and on and on. I try to logically balance the notion that the greatest chance of winning is picking lower seeds (#1 rank teams) but I also know rarely do #1 seeds in all four regions go all the way to the championships, there are always upsets, and I must understand the factors that are predictors to those upsets to get the greatest sense of comfort with my picks.

In the end, I find results differ. Usually my son comes in last…his eccentric behavior fails quickly. For every cinderella team he picks, 10 others are busts and that just leads to low scores. My daughter usually comes in second to last, as her picks are bold and she enjoys fighting for them…but they are usually built on false pretenses that don’t correlate to teams that win.

Interestingly, my wife usually scores the same or higher than I do. For all the time and effort I put into it, I try to get a sense of feeling that the more I study, the more I can predict the outcome…and boy is it frustrating when she puts in less effort and still beats me.

There are too many factors and random acts on which way the ball bounces, that no matter of study or analysis can predict the outcome for sure. And whether I do my best, or my wife just puts in little effort and sticks to the expert rankings…the results are usually the same, and sometimes my effort is wasted and I do worse than her even though she puts a lot less time into it. Sometimes I do better and think it must be me…when it is likely not for the reasons I based my criteria on.

So Why don’t I just do it like my wife…I just can’t. It is not fulfilling to me. I have a nature that wants to satisfy my desire to research things before I place confidence in my choices. Maybe I don’t get any better results, but I can’t help it, that’s how I am and that is why I love March Madness so much…I get value out of the process, regardless of whether I can accurately predict the future or not. I enjoy it. I know it is not ALL completely random, or I wouldn’t even try. I do find I improve my odds the more I study, but I still fall short every time.

In reality, no one can predict the future. Maybe some techniques are a little more successful than others, but none are going to perfectly produce results. I’ve never seen anyone that can consistently win tournament picks year after year.

I believe this is an analogy to life and religion.

1. Some just trust and obey leaders, and find fairly good success that way, but maybe don’t understand the details much, nor care to or really need to. They understand what they need to know to be successful, and that works for them.

2. Some are all about just comparing this religion to that religion (or lifestyle) and argue which is better, to find some individuality. They are often close-minded and view things from their familiar frame of reference, almost to protect themselves from others who think they know more. However, in this process, they are not open to see some factors that really are important.

3. Some are just rebellious and like outrageous ideas. Their thrill-seeking is less about reaching goals, and more about being noticed.

4. Some (like me) are real deep thinkers and like to prove things for themselves. That doesn’t mean they don’t trust or obey or respect the wisdom of those who considered “experts”…it just means they want more answers to satisfy them.

In the end, there is no scientific formula to produce exact precision on predictions, because, we don’t know the answers until the game is played and the outcome is seen. Since people are different inside, their desire for different approaches prevents only one style as the “correct” style.

Some people find satisfaction in participating, win or lose…some really don’t “get it” and don’t even watch the tournament. To each his/her own.

My point: Life is like March Madness…there is no one correct way. It depends on what you want out of it, and what you choose to put into it. Individuals are different on the inside, and there are so many unknown factors and random actions that occur that prevent it from being totally predictable…so it is more about choosing what works for us and how we want to play the game, then it is about who is right and who is wrong. In the end, it is an experience…something to learn from when we see the final results.