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Given that there now are three openings in the Q12, I looked at the apostles’ seniority list, ages and apparent general health and came up with the most likely succession order: 1) Pres. Monson: 88 years old
2) Elder Nelson: 91 years old; not likely to outlive Pres. Monsoon
3)
Elder Oaks:83 years old; likely to be next President 4) M. Russell Ballard: 86 years old; might outlive Elder Oaks
5) Elder Hales: 83 years old; seems to be in worse health than Elders Oaks and Ballard
6) Elder Holland: 74 years old; seems likely to become President; chance he will be next one
7) Pres. Eyring: 83 years old; not likely to outlive Elder Holland
Pres. Uchtdorf: 74 years old; seems to be in better health than Elder Holland; chance he will be next President, reasonable chance he will be President after Elder Holland9) Elder Bednar: 63 years old; likely to be President at some point, probably after Elder Holland and/or Pres. Uchtdorf
10) Elder Cook: 75 years old; not likely to become President
11) Elder Christofferson: 70 years old; unlikely to become President, unless serious health issue with Elder Bednar
12) Elder Anderson: 60 years old; likely to become President at some point, and could be relatively long-serving if Elder Bednar dies relatively young
This means a likely succession order would be:
Elder Oaks – Elder Holland and/or Pres. Uchtdorf – Elder Bednar – Elder Anderson – with Elder Christofferson taking Elder Bednar’s place if Elder Bednar has serious health issues
It could be up to 20 years before we would get to Elder Bednar, if his health stays good.
I like that likely scenario, more now than I would have 5-10 years ago.
[Admin Note]: I think we all know how most people here feel about Elder Bednar. It’s fine to say it, simply, but please don’t dwell or elaborate on it. Remember our core mission includes respect, generally, even in cases where we disagree with someone strongly. This one is a pretty please. I know the potential land mines, and don’t want them to be going off all over the place.
Exceptions to the rule – Joseph Fielding Smith, Harold B. Lee and Spencer W. Kimball. David Omen MacKay died in 1970
Joseph Fielding Smith became President – he died in 1972
Harold B. Lee became President, everyone expected him to serve a long term, he was 24 years younger than Joseph Fielding Smith and in good health. In December 1973 Harold B. Lee died, totally unexpectedly.
Spencer Woolley Kimball, the man with throat cancer and heart problems, became the President of the church. Everyone thought he wouldn’t last long with all of his health problems. He served for 12 years. The final years were very silent, but he was alive and his Presidency, which included a 3rd councilor, Gordon Bitner Hinckley, kept the church afloat.
All of this happened in my life time, so you just never know. We can map it till the cows come home, but dag nambit, sometimes life is full of surprises.
This will be the first post in a series of posts entitled “The 1001 things I dislike about B… [reads admin note]
Broccoli
:silent: The part that bothers me is the gerontocracy — how they serve for life in those positions. It makes for slow change in the church. And you often have to put up with having a prophet who can’t do anything or has lost his mind for years and years and years. I feel sorry for those guys hobbling up on the stand, afraid of the teleprompter because they can’t process information like they used to. It would be good for the church and for the older members to retire at a certain again and let succession take over as usual. Let’s not wait until death for openings 
I like that they publicly announced Elder Scott’s inactive statuus the last few months. I hope that can lead to emeritus status at some point. SilentDawning wrote:The part that bothers me is the gerontocracy — how they serve for life in those positions. It makes for slow change in the church. And you often have to put up with having a prophet who can’t do anything or has lost his mind for years and years and years. I feel sorry for those guys hobbling up on the stand, afraid of the teleprompter because they can’t process information like they used to. It would be good for the church and for the older members to retire at a certain again and let succession take over as usual. Let’s not wait until death for openings
And how the system with the staggered ages ensures the prophet is always up there in age. I guess it also ensures that the prophet always has decades of experience as an apostle, but sometimes inexperience forces the hand of reliance on the lord rather than reliance on tradition.
Old-Timer wrote:I like that they publicly announced Elder Scott’s inactive status the last few months. I hope that can lead to emeritus status at some point.
I like that too, and it is a change from past practice where nothing was said at all, or in some cases we were led to believe they were functioning when they were not. I’d favor emeritus status, but I don’t think it will happen for apostles despite that it happens for Seventy (at age 70,interestingly).
I also like your well thought out analysis. I also think Monson might outlive Nelson because I think he has the capacity to linger longer. I expect we will see a fairly long period of inactivity on Monson’s part akin to Kimball and Benson (and earlier McKay). And I think I’d actually prefer an Oaks presidency over a Nelson one – although Nelson is a driving force behind the Sabbath thing, which I mostly like. Five years ago I probably would not have said the same thing. And I like that there is a small glimmer of hope that Uchtdorf might someday make it to the big chair.
Old-Timer wrote:Given that there now are three openings in the Q12, I looked at the apostles’ seniority list, ages and apparent general health and came up with the most likely succession order:
1) Pres. Monson: 88 years old
2) Elder Nelson: 91 years old; not likely to outlive Pres. Monsoon
3)
Elder Oaks:83 years old; likely to be next President 4) M. Russell Ballard: 86 years old; might outlive Elder Oaks
5) Elder Hales: 83 years old; seems to be in worse health than Elders Oaks and Ballard
6) Elder Holland: 74 years old; seems likely to become President; chance he will be next one
7) Pres. Eyring: 83 years old; not likely to outlive Elder Holland
Pres. Uchtdorf: 74 years old; seems to be in better health than Elder Holland; chance he will be next President, reasonable chance he will be President after Elder Holland9) Elder Bednar: 63 years old; likely to be President at some point, probably after Elder Holland and/or Pres. Uchtdorf
10) Elder Cook: 75 years old; not likely to become President
11) Elder Christofferson: 70 years old; unlikely to become President, unless serious health issue with Elder Bednar
12) Elder Anderson: 60 years old; likely to become President at some point, and could be relatively long-serving if Elder Bednar dies relatively young
This means a likely succession order would be:
Elder Oaks – Elder Holland and/or Pres. Uchtdorf – Elder Bednar – Elder Anderson – with Elder Christofferson taking Elder Bednar’s place if Elder Bednar has serious health issues
It could be up to 20 years before we would get to Elder Bednar, if his health stays good.
I like that likely scenario, more now than I would have 5-10 years ago.
I’ll go
Monson through 2019
Nelson 2019-2021
Oaks 2021-2027
Uchtdorf 2027-2036
Bednar 2036-2049
I worry about a DAB-led Church. I will elaborate on only one point, but I will do it simply, with clarity and brevity, in order to maintain respect for him, his accomplishments, and his sacrifice for the cause. The fact is, the issue I wish to bring up can be said to some degree about nearly all of them. Couple of conferences ago, Oct 2013, DAB gave a talk on tithing. That’s fine. Nothing wrong with it or that he would speak on it. But what I found so disturbing was his primary-level understanding of tithing. DAB’s statement that the description of tithing in the D&C provided “clarity and brevity” was a hard pill to swallow. I sort of expect the Church’s ecclesiastical leaders to have grappled with more difficult issues, whether policy or doctrine, to try to make sense of them, and not simply to say, “it’s obvious and easy”. To me, DAB, along with most of the others, is an intelligent and articulate business manager, but one who lacks any theological insight.
Now, onto the list. I do think it’s very interesting to think about the ages and position of the people listed. I will point out, though, that to me, RMN seems like he could easily outlive President Monson, Elder Ballard, and Elder Holland, especially. RMN seems in great physical and mental condition. So do Elder Oaks and President Eyring, BTW. I know that that doesn’t mean a lot. I think that once you get into your mid-80’s and beyond, all bets are off. But BKP was almost exactly the same age as RMN (RMN was born the day before BKP). Yet look how RMN looks and acts compared to the way BKP was for the last several years of his life.
Old-Timer wrote:I like that they publicly announced Elder Scott’s inactive statuus the last few months. I hope that can lead to emeritus status at some point.
Me, too. Let’s just keep it real, and we all age and decline.On Own Now wrote:Now, onto the list. I do think it’s very interesting to think about the ages and position of the people listed. I will point out, though, that to me, RMN seems like he could easily outlive President Monson, Elder Ballard, and Elder Holland, especially. RMN seems in great physical and mental condition. So do Elder Oaks and President Eyring, BTW. I know that that doesn’t mean a lot. I think that once you get into your mid-80’s and beyond, all bets are off. But BKP was almost exactly the same age as RMN (RMN was born the day before BKP). Yet look how RMN looks and acts compared to the way BKP was for the last several years of his life.
Ah, but Perry was spry and the picture of health last GC. I remarked how much vitality he had compared with the others near his age and even younger. A short time later he was dead. You just never know.
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