Number of LDS missionaries rising

It is very interesting that I had similar thoughts as I read the article. I generally take whatever is written in Deseret News as biased, but I think this one is more biased than average.

I suppose that might have helped. However, I think that a better reason is that we are returning to our pre-pandemic numbers.

I agree, and there were great predictions when the missionary age was lowered which seem to not have quite yet come to fruition.

There is an excellent graph found at https://latterdaysaintmissionprep.com/news/number-of-mormon-missionaries/

From the mission prep website.

“The decline in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was a 23% year over year drop and was the biggest decline in the history of the available data (since 1977). In March of 2020, all missionaries throughout the world were brought to their home countries and quarantined. They were then given the opportunity the continue their mission immediately or postpone it. Roughly 80% decided to continue with their missions.”

Our 2022 & 2023 numbers are comparable to our 2017, 18, & 19 numbers and only look stellar when compared to 2020 & 2021.

Nothing like a good lie with statistics. There’s the old adage “lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

Another questionable assertion from the Deseret News article comes in the following quote

Fewer children are being born today in most countries. And yet, even “with fewer available, more are going out,” Elder Cook said.

Fewer children being born today? Hmm, may be true but that does not necessarily equate to “fewer available.” The raw population numbers of the world and LDS membership have both ballooned since the 1980. The church membership in 1980 was 4.5 Million and in 2022 topped 17 million. Although, I do not know how many of those numbers represent the youth of the church, it seems only reasonable that the number of church youth today is much larger than it was 40 years ago. Maybe the percentage of growth from the birthrate has slowed but that is not the same thing as saying that there are “fewer available.”

The phenomenon church leaders are seeing among young people who are signing up to go on missions is that they are responding in higher numbers, and higher percentages, than previous generations, Elder Cook said.

Elder Cook’s quote is of course not backed up with statistics, presumably because a) the stats don’t say what they want them to say b) the stats really aren’t available or c) both of those. I think in general in the Northern Hemisphere people in general are having fewer children. I saw a mention in another Deseret News article about how single children are more likely to have multiple children (based on anecdotal evidence) because they didn’t like being single children. I thought about the “mega multi-children” families in my ward (families with 8 children, now adults and parents) and the that anecdotal evidence indicates the opposite – none of them have anywhere close to 8, several with one of none (and don’t plan to have any). Anyway, for whatever reason I agree that surface evidence would seem to be that there are more church members, hence more missionaries as you say.

It would be interesting to see statistics comparing the number of missionaries as a percentage of youth available to serve. Maybe to get an apples to apples comparison it would be necessary to compare the number of male missionaries as a percentage of male youth available to serve. I believe that expectations regarding young LDS women and missionary service have shifted during this period and might muddy the results.

I think this stat does exist, at least at the local (stake/ward) level, which would seem to indicate there is a churchwide compilation through the membership computer system. As I recall when I could see such local stats, it really only listed unmarried 18-year-old men who had not served missions (and perhaps the same for women, but I don’t recall seeing that).

Another important point is that with the missionary surge after the age change the largest increase was actually in sister missionaries. Again I’m sure that stat was available to the church, perhaps not shared with DN, but in all likelihood there are far more sisters serving now than there were prior to the age change, skewing those prior stats. A stat of how many more males there are serving now compared to then would be more useful. This of course may be another misuse of stats because they don’t say what DN or the church would like them to say (and maybe they don’t expect people like us to actually think – how dare we!).

In summary, we reached 60k missionaries in the year 2000. Church membership in that time was 11 million. We are now at 17 million members and we just hit 68k missionaries. Nothing to crow about, but I guess if you need something to crow about then you can make a mountain out of this molehill.

Again, especially when you recognize that it’s more than likely that most if not all of those 8 million are sisters.

As Elder Marcus B. Nash, a General Authority Seventy and the executive director of the church’s missionary department, said at the Missionary Training Center, “There’s just something going on, and I don’t know how to explain it other than the prophet spoke in April 2022, and this rising generation — that he teaches us was held in reserve — are responding.”

Way to toe that party line, Elder Nash – good for you! There’s bound to be an opening in the Twelve very soon, hang in there.