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Barring a surprise, we’ll see two new Apostles called in Oct 2015 GC. Here’s the press guide: In the last 20 years (going back to include all of 1995) there have only been six new Apostles called. HBE was called in April, 1995, and after that there was a quiet spell of nine years. There was a relative flurry over a short time, when DFU and DAB were called in 2004, then QLC in 2007 , DTC in 2008 and NLA in 2009, but six and half years have gone by since then.
The age at the time of call, respectively, was 61, 63, 52, 67, 63, and 57, yielding an average age of 60.5 and a median age of 62. Those are increases from the prior 20 years, where the average age was 59.2 and the median 58.5.
The most likely place to find the next Apostles has been from the Seven Presidents of the Seventy. Four of the six called in the last 20 years were serving in the Presidency of the Seventy when called to the Q12.
Since President Monson became President of the Church, only two Apostles have been called. The 63 year old DTC was second in seniority in the Presidency of the Seventy, behind only 73 year old ECTingey. And the 57 year old NLA, who was at the time the most senior member of the Presidency of the Seventy.
That probably makes the following pretty prominent among candidates:
– Ronald A Rasband – 64 – Senior member of the Presidency of the Seventy for a long time (since the call of NLA 6.5 years ago), and a member of the P70 for 10 years. Years in the 1Q70: 15. I think of him as more of an every-man type. He’s been pretty visible in his current position. He’s under-educated compared to the apostolic norm of Doctors, Lawyers and PhD’s. But he does have a business background. Former Mission President. He’s notable for a talk he gave in Priesthood Session on the process of determining missionary assignments. Recent talks in GC:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2014/04/the-joyful-burden-of-discipleship?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2012/04/special-lessons?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2010/04/the-divine-call-of-a-missionary?lang=eng – L Whitney Clayton – 65 – Second in seniority of the P70 and a member of the P70 for 7.5 years. Years in the 1Q70: 14. An attorney specializing in business litigation, which would be a useful background for the top leadership. It’s interesting that 3.5 months after the vacancy appeared in the Q12 and three weeks before GC, Clayton was the keynote speaker at a worldwide devotional for young adults. Makes me wonder if this was a way to introduce him to the young people ahead of an assignment to the Q12. Recent talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/choose-to-believe?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/04/marriage-watch-and-learn?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2011/10/the-time-shall-come?lang=eng – Donald L Hallstrom – 66 – Third in seniority of the P70. Years in the 1Q70: 15. His age is pushing into the too-old-to-consider realm. Under-educated, compared to other Apostles, with a BS in Economics. Has served on the National Advisory Council of the BSA. Recent talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2014/04/what-manner-of-men?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2012/04/converted-to-his-gospel-through-his-church?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2010/04/turn-to-the-lord?lang=eng Personally, I think of the above the only one I would say is an obvious candidate is RAR; he’s the youngest of those most senior P70 and has had a long relationship with the Q12.
Others currently in the Presidency of the Seventy: Richard J Maynes (65), Craig C Christensen (59), Ulisses Soares (will be 57 before GC… I talk about him below), and Lynn G Robbins (62).
But a factor that we have talked about a bit here is that it’s probably time to expand the horizons with non-US-born Apostles. I’d be pretty surprised if one of the two isn’t from Mexico or Brazil. Those two nations each support 34 LDS Missions… each… 34. The Church has a very strong presence in both countries. There are 12 temples in Mexico, with another soon to be dedicated. Brazil has half the number of temples, but probably because population is more concentrated. The first temple in Latin America was Sao Paulo, Brazil. My feeling is that the Church is so prevalent in those places that it makes sense to have a member of the Q12 from one of those two countries. It might also work to have an Apostle from a different Latin American country. The Church only publishes the Bible and the JST in two languages: English and Spanish. Yet, there has never been a Latino Apostle (apologies to Marion G Romney).
So… who might be considered to fill such a role?
Brazil: – Ulisses Soares – Will be 57 by GC – Current member of the Presidency of the Seventy. Years in the 1Q70: 10. Has an MBA. Former Mission President. Speaks English well. Spoke in Portuguese in GC in April. Recent talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/yes-we-can-and-will-win?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/10/be-meek-and-lowly-of-heart?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2012/04/abide-in-the-lords-territory?lang=eng – Claudio R M Costa – 66 – Years in the 1Q70: 14. Former Mission President. Speaks English well. Although a long-standing member of the 1Q70, Costa seems unlikely based solely on the fact that he hasn’t spoken in GC for five years, when we gave a talk essentially reading the 14 Fundamentals into the record. Here:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2010/10/obedience-to-the-prophets?lang=eng – Carlos A Godoy – 54. Years in the 1Q70: seven. Master’s Degree in Organizational Behavior. Former Mission President. Speaks English Well. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2014/10/the-lord-has-a-plan-for-us?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2008/10/testimony-as-a-process?lang=eng – Marcos A Aidukaitis – 56 – Years in the 1Q70: Seven. Former Mission President. Has an MBA. Speaks English well. Brazilian-born, of Lithuanian ancestry. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2014/04/if-ye-lack-wisdom?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2008/10/because-my-father-read-the-book-of-mormon?lang=eng Mexico: – Arnulfo Valenzuela – 56 – Years in the 1Q70: two. MBA. Best English-speaker among 1Q70 from Mexico. One talk in GC:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/10/small-and-simple-things?lang=eng – Benjamin De Hoyos – 62 – Years in the 1Q70: 10. Former Mission President. MBA. Recent talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2011/04/called-to-be-saints?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2005/10/true-happiness-a-conscious-decision?lang=eng – Jose L Alonso – 56 – Years in the 1Q70: four. Physician. Former Mission President. One talk in GC:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2011/10/doing-the-right-thing-at-the-right-time-without-delay?lang=eng Other Latin American Countries: – Enrique R Falabella – 65 – Years in the 1Q70: eight. Guatemala. Degree in Agronomy. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/04/the-home-the-school-of-life?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2007/10/why-are-we-members-of-the-only-true-church?lang=eng – Walter F Gonzalez – 62 – Uruguay. Years in the 1Q70: 14. Former Mission President. Bachelor of General Studies, which would make him a surprise against the well-educated norm. He was a career CES employee. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2012/10/learning-with-our-hearts?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2011/04/followers-of-christ?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2009/10/becoming-more-powerful-priesthood-holders?lang=eng – Juan Uceda – 62 – Peru. Years in the 1Q70: five. Former Mission President. Speaks English Well. Bachelor’s in Public Relations. GC talk:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2010/10/he-teaches-us-to-put-off-the-natural-man?lang=eng – Jorge Zeballos – 60 – Chile. Years in the 1Q70: seven. Former Mission President. MBA from BYU. Speaks English pretty well. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/if-you-will-be-responsible?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2009/10/attempting-the-impossible?lang=eng – Rafael Pino – 59 – Venezuela. Years in the 1Q70: seven. Former Mission President. Studied at the college level, but no degree. Talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2015/04/the-eternal-perspective-of-the-gospel?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2009/04/faith-in-adversity?lang=eng – Eduardo Gavarret – 59 – Uruguay. Years in the 1Q70: seven. A very interesting candidate on paper. He earned an MBA in Brazil. Has worked in international companies including in Brazil. In fact, he was in the Brazil Area leadership of the Church. So, while he is a native Spanish speaker, he is apparently also fluent in Portuguese. Because of that, he’d make an interesting representative of Latin America. He’s a former Mission President. Recent talks:
https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2014/10/yes-lord-i-will-follow-thee?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2008/10/returning-home?lang=eng Finally, one note of trivia. Whenever two or more Apostles are called at the same time, their seniority in the Q12 is based on age. This is long-standing, going back to 1835. Examples: SWK and ETB, both ordained on the same day in 1943, RMN and DHO, both called on the same day. Elder Oaks couldn’t be ordained for about a month, while he finished civic duty, but it was irrelevant in terms of seniority, because RMN is nine years older and was the first ordained anyway. DFU and DAB ordained same day, DFU was first, because he is older.
Great analysis, OON. The time is quickly approaching. From your first list of top three likely candidates I’m going with Clayton. I don’t care for him much but he seems to be more visible than some of his peers. I think a call to him is a step backwards (similar to Bednar, but maybe worse). I agree with your assessment that he has been more visible of late, speaking at the worldwide devotional. I will also note that Rasband recently spoke at a BYU devotional, not quite the same as the devotional but early in the semester when they usually get apostles. I like Rasband more and think he is a more moderate candidate but I think Clayton is more “in” with some of the Q12. (I will be pleased to be wrong about Clayton.)
I’m going with Soares (Brazil) from the South America list. He was the only male non-apostle included in the Sabbath training video. I actually think he may be a good choice. Of note, the church just announced last week that the they have published a Bible in Portuguese (online now, hard copy next year). This could just be a coincidence and probably does not portend a Brazilian apostle since it has been years in the works, but it is an interesting coincidence.
I do think we will see them both come from the presidency of the Seventy, and that they will be replaced by Seventies from outside North America.
And thanks for pointing out the age and seniority thing. I had always been told (and believed) that it had to do with which was ordained first, which is actually correct. However, I had never noticed that the oldest one is ordained first.
Don’t forget about past and current presidents of BYU and BYU-I. Great analysis On Own, For my part am just putting my head in a paper bag and crying. I know that no matter what I wish for I won’t get it. I can try guessing a 100 ways to none and still, nothing.
It’s strange I remember loving Bednar’s “Tender Mercy’s” talk and not even remember Uchtdorf. Now I dread a Bednar talk and want clones of Uchtdorf. Crazy stuff.
Roadrunner wrote:Don’t forget about past and current presidents of BYU and BYU-I.
Yep, and there actually is one from that list who could be a viable candidate, 66-year-old Kim B Clark (President of BYU-I after DAB). He’s a new member of the 1Q70. Prior to BYU-I, he was the Dean of Harvard Business School. I’m certain the current Q12 would love to bring someone like that into the conversations they have.Of course, there are other sources to pull from as well. RMN was a surgeon. There are members of the 2nd Q70 who might be considered. There’s the Presiding Bishopric… RDH was the Presiding Bishop when called. Same for LeGrand Richards. One name I worry about just a bit is Tad R Callister. He’d served in the P70, but was released to go run the Church’s reboot of the adult SS curriculum. He’d be the oldest one on the list at 69, but it wouldn’t shock me.
But based on past tendencies, the P70 is still the first place to look. It’s not really shocking. They are all vetted for that position in much the same way the Apostles are, I’m sure. And these are the people who work most closely with the Q12. It’s a sort of replacement for the old “Assistants to the Quorum of the Twelve”. A third of all the people who were Assistants to the Twelve later became Apostles themselves (like LTPerry and BKP). Parenthetically, Assistant to the Twelve was considered to be a GA. There is only one surviving person ever to hold the position: Robert D Hales.
I think Oaks, Eyring, Holland, and Bednar are all past BYU or BYU-I presidents so I’m thinking Clark will be one of the new Q12. Makes sense because BYU is a microcosm of the church. I really like Gerald Caussee – seems to come from a similar mold as Uchtdorf. Roadrunner wrote:I think Oaks, Eyring, Holland, and Bednar are all past BYU or BYU-I presidents so I’m thinking Clark will be one of the new Q12. Makes sense because BYU is a microcosm of the church. I really like Gerald Caussee – seems to come from a similar mold as Uchtdorf.
It actually nauseates me to think that BYU, and more especially BYU-I, are microcosms of the church. I find that extremely sad and disheartening. I don’t disagree with that assessment, though, I think you’re right – I just try not to think about it.
I like Causse, too, and I think he could be on the short list. If they are looking to diversify, he fits the bill – but he’s not Latino or African.
Kimball broke the mold with Nelson and Oaks and I remember the shock then. It was a major topic of conversation that these guys came from the real world when they were called. I recall most people really liking it, and as a TBM I used to really like Oaks. Alas, it has not been done in modern (mid-late 20th and 21st Century) time before or since.
As a side note, Oaks has actually worked his way into my favor again. As I have said elsewhere, I see a mellower Oaks now than past times. He could still smile more.
Cool info, thanks. I too would have quite an issue with Elder Callister. His Ensign talk (given at BYU-I I think) was a drop back all the way into the 70’s. Which also brings to me that I worry about any BYU-I president as of late. But I have already said more than I want to speculate. We will shortly see. What a great overview. Thank you. Housekeeping question because I may not be able to watch live: which session do we think this will happen in?
Ann wrote:What a great overview. Thank you.
Housekeeping question because I may not be able to watch live: which session do we think this will happen in?
As I recall, it’s usually done at the sustaining of church officers, which is usually the Saturday afternoon session.
(On edit I did a bit of research and it appears that such business is conducted sometimes in the Saturday morning and sometimes in the Saturday afternoon sessions, and it appears to be about equally divided when new apostles are called.)
Thanks for the summary. DarkJedi wrote:It actually nauseates me to think that BYU, and more especially BYU-I, are microcosms of the church. I find that extremely sad and disheartening. I don’t disagree with that assessment, though, I think you’re right – I just try not to think about it.
As I was reading Roadrunner’s post those exact same thoughts came to me. Ugh.
Not to derail this thread, but my very TBM wife is pushing my son next year to go to BYU-I. He doesn’t want to go there because, “they are just way too strict.” Out of all of my kids he is the most likely to say, “the emperor has no clothes” and I think if she prevails it probably will tilt him more to leaving the church if not while there, at least some point afterwards. I know of one person in my ward that does say that BYU-I and it’s ultra-conservatism, ultra-orthodox, and rules that treat you like a child (his words) set him up to leave a few years after graduation. But I also have someone in my ward that is proud as can be that they didn’t go to that heathen school in Provo. “that heathen school in Provo” does not speak well for Idaho. We had a lesson on pride that could cut that attitude down to size. 
Orson wrote:“that heathen school in Provo” does not speak well for Idaho. We had a lesson on pride that could cut that attitude down to size.
BYU-I has the pride thing under control – better than anyone else.
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