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This week a missionary in our ward is going home after completing his two years. His companion is being transferred. They are closing down their apartment along with 7 others in the mission. Our ward, which for all of the years we have lived here had only one set of missionaries, will return to one set. We’ve had two sets only a little over a year, the second set and now only set are sisters. According to the departing missionaries there is a possibility of new elders returning in the fall when the current crop of 18 year olds graduates and submit their papers, but there is not a guarantee. Is the bubble beginning to deflate? Are people seeing this in other areas? (FWIW, there isn’t enough for two sets of missionaries to do in our little ward anyway which is why there was always only one set. Baptism have not increased in the time we have had two sets.)
It only makes sense that the number of missionaries out will decline over the next 16 months, and level off at a more sustained number. Then the announcement was made in Oct 1012, there was a sudden infusion of eligible prospects. All the girls aged 19 and 20 were newly eligible. All the boys, 18, were newly eligible. I’m assuming that the latest “early-entrants” started their missions by mid-summer, 2013.
The YW who went out in the first wave are beginning to go home, and will through December. The first wave of YM will follow 6 months later. By the mid-summer 2015, we should be at ‘normal’ numbers. Of course, the new norm will be much higher than the pre-Oct-2012 numbers, because so many more YW are serving.
What OON said. It will level off but it will still be more than before. I think the bulk of the missionary influx remained in the USA because it was just easier to do it that way. No complications with caps set by the government as to how many missionaries can enter a country, little political barriers, visas, etc. If they can start channeling some of the surge abroad you could still have an increased number of missionaries but see a reduction in the USA.
When I served increases and decreases in numbers were commonplace. We’d regularly have situations where more missionaries were coming to the field than were leaving so it necessitated the opening of areas. We’d also regularly have more leaving than were coming so some areas temporarily closed.
Broken record time… I don’t focus so much on the number of missionaries worldwide or even locally. I’ll start feeling the bubble deflate when HtW doesn’t dominate all church lessons and conversation. I suspect it’s always been that way for forever though: lengthen your stride, every member a missionary, and now hasten the work. It doesn’t really matter if there’s 6 missionaries in our ward or if there are none if HtW still takes precedent over the atonement in our meetings.
The numbers are projected to drop a little and stabilize, but I believe the distribution of missionaries is going to change. It made sense to increase the number in established missions initially, but I believe there will be more and more pulled from those established, “Western” missions in the future and sent to new or newer missions in places where the Church is less-established. When China and India (and more of Africa) are open . . . that will require a serious paradigm and practice shift.
I always understood the number would decrease and stabilize – it’s not rocket science, although on some other boards one wouldn’t necessarily see it being figured out. :crazy: What I’m surprised at is that it seems to be happening already – the announcement was barely 18 months ago never mind the processing of applications. While our elders weren’t specific about other areas being closed or condensed and I didn’t ask, I’m assuming this was not the only elders apartment closing. I did ask my son about it when we Skyped this weekend (their changes are next week) and he was not aware of any decrease – they usually have 16-20 or so new missionaries per change, he said, but he doesn’t know about next week yet. It’s also not unusual for them to train after being out less than 6 months, especially for sisters and he did say not long ago that over half the mission had been out less than six months. It would seem that the number has to slow down – if they’re getting 20 missionaries every six weeks that will add up fast. His mission was one of the new ones created, but they did have missionaries from the previous missions his was created from.My math puts the first sisters of the wave going home this summer, perhaps as early as next month domestically and the first elders coming back end of the year domestically. I’m just thinking it’s early for this to be happening, but I also recognize this mission could be a fluke. The idea of another small increase in late summer also makes sense because some young men will choose to go directly after high school now instead of after a year of college (which many did awaiting turning 19 anyway). My son is going to BYU for a year first, not that we don’t think he’s mature enough but because we (including him) think it’s good to be away from home for more than a week at Scout Camp before leaving for two years with little contact with Mommy and Daddy. And he also doesn’t have his half of the money. In the long run we expect he’ll leave shortly after his brother returns, which also works out well for us (unless he were to have all his money). We full well expect he’ll go foreign.
Back in the old days when I served (my 18 month mission) our mission was fairly stable, opening a new area was rare and usually meant closing another. My mission had actually been consolidated not long before, three missions had been made into two.
It’s nothing surprising. Anytime you have more resources them potential customers. Increasing the work force was IBMs business strategy many decades ago. Although it worked for a time it didn’t work out to well in the long run. It’s not how companies do business now trying to swallow a bigger percentage of pie. Market growth doesn’t happen really with a even bigger sales force in today’s global economy. So the decreased age would be solely for standardization. Quote:Market growth doesn’t happen really with a even bigger sales force in today’s global economy.
Depends on the industry and the message.
Let’s bear in mind too that the “customers” are also the missionaries themselves. That’s a big reason for missions to exist – to build future leaders and more committed members. Sending girls in equal numbers to boys is also a part of an effective strategy to create more spiritual independence and strength among the women of the church. hawkgrrrl wrote:Let’s bear in mind too that the “customers” are also the missionaries themselves. That’s a big reason for missions to exist – to build future leaders and more committed members. Sending girls in equal numbers to boys is also a part of an effective strategy to create more spiritual independence and strength among the women of the church.
Thanks for the reminder. I might point out also that there are not just male zone leaders in missions now – sisters have sister training leaders as well and their job is very similar to that of a zone leader. Zone leader councils are now mission leader councils which include the sister leaders and in many cases the president’s wife.
From the point of view that the mission is as much for the conversion and development of leaders as it is for finding converts, I don’t see why age 18 or 19 makes a difference – but I guess that’s the whole point. It is also worth noting, however, that many people who come here say that their faith crisis began on their missions.
I think it’s good they are making changes that demarginalize women. I wasn’t aware that some missions have zone councils and such. There will always be some who aren’t satisfied until they receive the priesthood, but these changes are positive. ALL missions now have sister leaders who are, essentially, zone leaders and who sit on the same leadership councils as the young men leaders. The female Mission Presidents (not official titles, but that’s how I refer to them now) oversee the female missionaries in some practical ways. It’s part of the official structure of missions now.
I wasn’t sure if the mission president’s wife thing was part of the official structure or just something that some missions did. (Ours does and my son’s does.) So here’s the link to the newsroom story just over a year ago. The president’s wife (they need to come up with a tile for that position – like temple matron) is officially a part of the whole thing. That’s a far cry from the days when I served when she inspected our apartments a couple times a year and spoke in zone conference once. http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/church-adjusts-mission-organization-implement-mission-leadership-council ” class=”bbcode_url”> http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/church-adjusts-mission-organization-implement-mission-leadership-council Quote:they need to come up with a tile for that position
“Boss” works for me – or whatever other title she wants.
I won’t lace up my shoes for the victory lap yet on the female zone leader thing. They only lead other women from what I have heard because women are only able to lead women and children in our church, not men. (Lest anyone get their undies in a wad, the obvious exception is male primary teachers. Yeah yeah. I get it. But due to the two-deep restriction, there aren’t many of them.)
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